AL GROH

Age:  64

School:  Virginia

Alma Mater:  Virginia, 1965

Conference:  ACC

Salary:  $1,875,000

Official Bio:   www.virginiasports.com

Years Coaching:  13

Career Record:  77 - 77  .500

Years at School:  7

Record at Virginia:  51 - 37   .580

2007 Record:  9 - 4  .692

2007 Cost per Win:  $208,333

Attorney/Agent:  Neil Cornich     

Contract:    

December 2008 Buyout:  $6,500,000

Coaches Hot Seat Analysis

After the opening season loss last year to Wyoming in Laramie, Al Groh's rear-end was so hot he could have lit every charcoal barbeque grill on the Eastern seaboard.  Over the next 9 weeks Groh and his Virginia team won 6 games by a combined 12 points, and every one of those games could have gone the other way.  Winning is still winning, and you have to give Groh, his staff, and the UVA players credit for not just throwing in the towel after that opening loss to what turned out to be a very bad Wyoming team.  The 2007 season ended badly though with a loss to cross-state rival Virginia Tech, and then an incredible meltdown in the bowl game against Texas Tech.  With an overall 51-37 (.580) record at Virginia in 7 seasons, 2008 promises to be a huge season for Groh, who at 64 years of age surely wants to leave Charlottesville on his own terms.  Last year we wondered here at Coaches Hot Seat why the UVA fans were so ambivalent, if not downright hostile towards Groh, but we have noticed a subtle difference in those same Virginia fans a year later.  Maybe Groh has softened a bit, or the fans have grudgingly given him more respect, but the temperature level has been turned down a bit and that gives Groh and opening to prove he can win against what promises to be a very tough schedule in '08.  There has been one major change on the coaching staff with Mike London taking the head coaching job at Richmond, and Groh hiring an old friend in Bob Pruett for the defensive coordinator position.  Bob Pruett is a very good defensive coach, but he is going to need to make an immediate impact, especially with the USC Trojans coming town in the first game of the season.

Coaches Hot Seat Bottom Line

We predict that Al Groh and Virginia will have a 5-7 record in 2008.

Late August delivers to us one of those great inter-sectional games of the year with the Southern Cal Trojans traveling to the lovely hamlet of Charlottesville to play Virginia.  Last year USC went to Lincoln, Nebraska and schooled the Cornhuskers, and we see USC really laying a lick on the Cavaliers, even though they will be breaking in a new QB.  Even if Virginia is able to keep it respectable against USC, it will be hard to get a win in that first game, and it doesn't get a lot easier  for UVA as the season progresses.  With 7 home games it will be a must for Virginia to win as many of those games as possible, with road trips to UConn, Georgia Tech, Wake Forest, and Virginia Tech.  We see Virginia winning 5 of their first 9 games, but the closing schedule of, at Wake Forest, Clemson at home, and on the road at Virginia Tech will send the Cavaliers into a tailspin and will produce a 5-7 record.  Can Al Groh survive a 2nd 5-7 record in the last three seasons?  No, he cannot, and with such a small buyout ($960,000) we believe that Virginia will either ask Coach Groh to retire or they will fire him at the end of the 2008 season.

2008 Coaches Hot Seat Prediction:        5-7

Will Groh be back for the 2009 season?        NO

Potential Replacements:  Dave Christensen (OC Missouri), Derek Dooley (La. Tech), Al Golden (Temple), Todd Graham (Tulsa), Brady Hoke (Ball State), Skip Holtz (East Carolina), Butch Jones (Central Michigan), Brian Kelly (Cincinnati), Mike Locksley (OC Illinois), Mike London (Richmond), Dan Mullen (OC Florida), Tim Murphy (Harvard), Will Muschamp (DC Texas), Gary Patterson (TCU), Charlie Strong (DC Florida), Chris Peterson (Boise State), Brent Venables (DC Oklahoma)