BOBBY JOHNSON

Age:  58

School:  Vanderbilt

Alma Mater:  Clemson, 1972

Conference:  SEC

Salary:  $1,000,000

Official Bio:   www.vucommodores.com

Years Coaching:  14

Career Record:  80 - 86  .482

Years at School:  6

Record at Vanderbilt:  20 - 50  .286

2007 Record:  5 - 7   .417

2007 Cost per Win:  $150,000

Attorney/Agent:   

Contract: 

December 2008 Buyout:  $1,000,000

Coaches Hot Seat Analysis

Bobby Johnson is a very good football coach, but unfortunately he is coaching at a place in Vanderbilt where even very good football coaches will struggle to put up winning seasons.  After having three years of success at I-AA Furman, including a trip to the I-AA National Championship Game in 2001, Johnson was presented with the opportunity to coach in the SEC, but at a place that has been a graveyard for coaches for years now.  Yes, Gerry DiNardo got the job at LSU after 7 seasons at Vandy without a winning season, but a school like LSU would almost certainly not come calling on a Vanderbilt coach today if they had an opening.  It would be interesting to know what went through Johnson's head as he pondered staying at Furman, or taking the Vanderbilt job, which he had to know would be an almost impossible place to win at.  Of course, for a football coach looking to move up, there is not a bigger stage  than the SEC, and in recent years Johnson has almost done the impossible by beating Ole Miss, South Carolina, Georgia, and Tennessee.  In '07, Johnson had Vandy on the way to a bowl berth, but two very close losses to Georgia and Tennessee (a game just given away to the Vols) sent Vanderbilt to another losing season, and their head coach probably wondering when his Commodores were going to break through.

If you ever get to Nashville, Tennessee it is certainly worth the time to travel west of downtown to the Vanderbilt campus, and there you will find an ideal place to go to college, and nearby an exact copy of the Parthenon.  A few years back a couple of us here at Coaches Hot Seat were at a home Vanderbilt game and while we were standing in line at halftime to get a hotdog and a beer, we noticed a guy in line with a sticker on his shirt that said his son played for Vandy.  We struck up a conversation with this parent, who turned out to be a doctor, and he said that his son was a tight-end on the Vandy team, and he shook his head, laughed and said, "Imagine, $200,000 of free education for playing football."  In that parent's comment probably lies the problem with Vandy, in that it is a very good place to get an education, but is it a place where top recruits will go to play football?  We recently mused in a preview of Jim Grobe and Wake Forest in 2008, that if Vanderbilt was in the ACC they would certainly have a lot better chance to compete for a conference title.  Vanderbilt is not in the ACC though, and Bobby Johnson and his staff will continue to do a very good job of coaching, will work hard to get the best players they can to their campus, but will that ever be enough?  Will Vanderbilt ever be able to win the SEC Eastern division and seriously compete for the SEC title?  We say not anytime soon, but Vanderbilt could certainly alter a few things, like weakening their academic standards for athletes just a little, commit just a few more dollars to recruiting and to facilities, and spend a few more bucks on public relations and name awareness, and they could become a football power along the lines of a Wake Forest.  Vanderbilt sits in a great city in Nashville, it has a great academic reputation, they have a very good football coach in Bobby Johnson, and the only thing that is really missing is a commitment from the administration at Vandy to really field a winning football team.  If that is the case, the next question has to be:  Do the people running Vanderbilt really want a winning football program, or would that possibly conflict with the overall goals of the institution?  We cannot answer that question, but it is certainly a question that must be asked with so many losing seasons on the board over the past half century. 

Coaches Hot Seat Bottom Line

We predict that Bobby Johnson and Vanderbilt will have a 3-9 record in 2008.  Vanderbilt opens up the season on the road against MAC team Miami of Ohio. and this game will be a very tough opener for the Commodores.  In '07 Vandy beat Miami of Ohio by 11 points in Nashville, but this game will probably be much closer playing on the road in Ohio.  In a close game, we see Vandy getting the win to open the season, which takes their record to

1-0.  In week 2 Steve Spurrier brings his Gamecocks to Nashville, and in '07 it was Vanderbilt which brought South Carolina down to earth after they had gotten off to a 6-1 start.  This should be a great SEC game, and we are giving the edge to Spurrier in this spot, and we see USC getting a tough win on the road.  After two games, Vandy is 1-1.  In week 3 Rice travels to Nashville to play Vandy and the Commodores should be able to handles the Owls.  After three games, Vandy is 2-1.  Week 4 is a fascinating game on the road against Houston Nutt's Ole Miss team, and Nutt will no doubt be wanting to get a win against one of the few SEC teams the Rebels will play in '08 that will have equal or less talent on the sidelines.  In another close game, we see Ole Miss getting the win at home, which runs the Vandy record to 2-2.  Auburn comes calling on Vanderbilt in week 5, and the Tigers will probably have too much for the Commodores, which will drop the Vandy record to 2-3.  Week 6 brings a second trip to Mississippi to play Sly Croom's Miss. State Bulldogs, and we believe MSU will have too much for Vandy in this game.  After six games, Vanderbilt is 2-4.  In 2006 Vanderbilt shocked Georgia in Athens, and this is the type of game that Mark Richt's Bulldogs have struggled in recently.  Georgia will be shooting for a big season in '08, and they should be focused in this spot, and we them getting a solid win over Vandy.  After seven games, Vandy is 2-5.  David Cutcliffe brings his Duke team to Vanderbilt in week 8, and we will be very interested to see how far Cutcliffe has brought the Blue Devils by this time in the season, but Vandy should have a little to much for the Dukies in this game.  After eight games, Vandy is 3-5.  Urban Meyer brings the Gators to Nashville in week 9, and this is the type of game that Florida has struggled in under Meyer.  In '06 Vanderbilt almost beat Florida in Nashville, and we believe that this game will be close again in 2008.  In the end though, Florida will get the win over Vandy, which will take the Commodores record to 3-6.  Week 10 will be a very tough trip to Lexington to play Kentucky, and in what should be another close game for Vandy, we see the Wildcats getting the win in the 4th quarter.  After 10 games, Vandy is 3-7.  In week 11 Phil Fulmer brings his Vols to Nashville, and this may be a very big game for both coaches.  Vanderbilt had Tennessee beat in '07, and after giving up the lead, the Commodores had a chance to win the game on a last second field goal, but alas it hit the cross-bar and missed.  Vanderbilt will again be ready for the Vols in '08, but we see Vandy losing another close one to Tennessee.  Vanderbilt ends the season on the road against Wake Forest, and Grobe's '08 team should be playing some very good football by the end of the season.  In a tough game for Vandy, we see the Deacons getting the win in this game, which drops the Vanderbilt 2008 regular season record to 3-9.

2008 Coaches Hot Seat Prediction:       3-9

Will Bobby Johnson be back for the 2009 season?      YES