Brett Bielema

Date	Opponent	Location	2008 CHS Prediction
8/30/08	Akron	Madison, WI	W
9/06/08	Marshall	Madison, WI	W
9/13/08	at Fresno State	Fresno, CA	W
9/27/08	at Michigan	Ann Arbor, MI	W
10/04/08	Ohio State	Madison, WI	W
10/11/08	Penn State	Madison, WI	W
10/18/08	at Iowa	Iowa City, IA	W
10/25/08	Illinois	Madison, WI	W
11/01/08	at Michigan State	East Lansing, MI	L
11/08/08	at Indiana	Bloomington, IN	W
11/15/08	Minnesota	Madison, WI	W
11/22/08	Cal Poly	Madison, WI	W

	Coaches Hot Seat Prediction		11-1

Coaches Hot Seat Analysis

When Barry Alvarez announced that he would be stepping down at the end of the '05 season, none of us were surprised, but our collective reaction when Alvarez said that Bret Bielema would replace him was: "Who is Bret Bielema?" In Bielema's first year at Wisconsin he ran off 11 regular season wins and a bowl win over Arkansas, and we still didn't know much about the guy, except that he put a very good football team on the field. In 2007 Ohio State came onto the Wisconsin schedule, but before they could take on the Buckeyes, Wisconsin lost games to Illinois and Penn State on the road. The final score of the Wisconsin/Ohio State game in '07 was 38-17, but the Badgers had the lead in the 3rd quarter until the Buckeyes pulled away to get the win. In that loss Bielema and Wisconsin got a good look at what kind of team it takes to win the Big Ten, and with a favorable home Big Ten schedule in '08, the Badgers will no doubt be looking to do bigger things. One thing we did notice in 2007 about Wisconsin was that played very inconsistently, playing very poorly against UNLV, Iowa, and Penn State on the road, and the Badgers looked almost listless at times in the bowl game against Tennessee. If Wisconsin hopes to play for the Big Ten title in '08, they are going to have to play not only with a lot more consistency, but with more purpose and force, or they will find that ever increasing toughness of the conference will have a significant impact upon their win/loss record.

Coaches Hot Seat Bottom Line

We predict that Bret Bielema and Wisconsin will have a 11-1 record in 2008. Wisconsin has the type of schedule in '08 that gives them the opportunity to win the Big Ten, because 3 of their 4 toughest games are at home in Madison. A road game against Michigan in Week 4 would normally be a very tough place to get a win, but with Rich Rodriguez blowing up the Wolverines football team to put in his system, a road and win at Ann Arbor will be a very good possibility. The season opens with MAC team Akron visiting Madison, and the Zips were 4-8 in 2007. This should be a pretty easy win for the Badgers, so they are 1-0 after one game. In Week 2 Marshall (3-9 in '07) visits Madison and this should be another easy win for Wisconsin, which takes their record to 2-0. The third game may be one of the most important, and one of the most difficult games of the year for Wisconsin, as they travel to California to play Fresno State. Fresno State is out in the Central Valley of California and in the middle of September it will still be hot, and the pollution that exists in the Valley will also be a factor in the game. Pat Hill and Fresno State bounced back in 2007 with a 9-4 record, and Wisconsin is going to find out very quickly that this will be one of the most physical games they will play all year. In what we see as a very close game, Wisconsin gets the win in the 4th quarter over the Bulldogs to run their record to 3-0. Week 4 is the trip to Ann Arbor to play Rodriguez's first Michigan team, and the Wolverines will probably be coming off a loss at Notre Dame, and needing a win to get back on track. Wisconsin will just have too much talent and too well organized in Bielema's 3rd year in Madison, and that will be the difference as they beat Michigan to run their record to 4-0. After starting the season 4-0, the biggest game of the year arrives in Week 5 when the Ohio State Buckeyes travel to Madison to play the Badgers. Ohio State has had some trouble in recent years on the road against teams that are physical and that can come close to matching the Buckeyes' speed, and we see a great Big Ten game between these two teams. In what should be a back and forth affair, we see Wisconsin getting the win to upset Ohio State, which would take their record to 5-0. After a tough win against the Buckeyes, Penn State makes a trip to Madison with Coach Paterno more than likely in the last season of his great career. In another close game until the 2nd half, Wisconsin pulls away to beat the Nittany Lions to take their record to 6-0. Week 7 is a trip to Iowa City to play Brett Bielema's alma mater, the Iowa Hawkeyes. Iowa has struggled at home in recent years, but they almost beat (lost 17-13) Wisconsin in '07, so this is a game that the Hawkeyes will think they can win. In a closer game than expected, Wisconsin gets the win in the 4th quarter to move their record to 7-0. Week 8 will be a huge game in '08, with Ron Zook and the Illini traveling to Madison to play a game that both teams will believe could be for the Big Ten title. In a great game, we again see Wisconsin coming out on top and getting a win over Illinois, which takes their record to 8-0. After jumping out to 8 straight wins to start the season, the Badgers know they have the Big Ten title if they can just find a way to handle Michigan State and Indiana on the road, and Minnesota at home. Michigan State should be much improved in year two of the Dantonio regime, and this will be a very tough game for Wisconsin to win. In another very close Big Ten game, we see the Spartans beating the Badgers, which drops the Wisconsin record to 8-1. After a tough loss to Michigan State, the Spartans will have to get right back up to play on the road against an improving Indiana team. In what should be another good game, Wisconsin has enough talent to pull away in the 2nd half to get the win. After ten games, Wisconsin is 9-1. Week 10 finds Minnesota traveling to Madison to play the Badgers and although Minnesota should be improved in '08, they don't have enough firepower to win this game. Wisconsin gets another win and runs their record to 10-1. The final game of the season is a very strange one, as I-AA Cal-Poly travels Madison to play the Badgers. Cal-Poly played one I-A team in 2007, Idaho, and lost 20-17, so there is not a chance in the world Wisconsin loses this game. The win over Cal-Poly runs the Wisconsin regular season record to 11-1 and earns them the Big Ten Championship with their wins over Ohio State and Illinois.

Even with Ohio State at the top of their game, 2008 is the year for Wisconsin to win the Big Ten title. As Illinois and LSU proved (and Washington almost as well) there is soft underbelly to the Ohio State Buckeyes, and that if you can play turnover free and non-penalty football against the defending Big Ten champions, they can be beat. We believe that Wisconsin will be up to that challenge in 2008.

2008 Coaches Hot Seat Prediction: 11-1

Will Bret Bielema be back for the 2009 season? YES