Butch Davis

Year	School	Record	Bowl
1995	Miami	8-3
1996	Miami	9-3	Carquest
1997	Miami	5-6
1998	Miami	9-3	Micron PC
1999	Miami	9-4	Gator
2000	Miami	11-1	Sugar
2007	North Carolina	4-8
Career		55-28	.663
	North Carolina	4-8	.333

2008 SCHEDULE

Date	Opponent	Location	2008 CHS Prediction
8/30/08	McNeese State	Chapel Hill, NC	W
9/11/08	at Rutgers	Piscataway, NJ	L
9/20/08	Virginia Tech	Chapel Hill, NC	L
9/27/08	at Miami	Miami Gardens, FL	W
10/04/08	Connecticut	Chapel Hill, NC	W
10/11/08	Notre Dame	Chapel Hill, NC	W
10/18/08	at Virginia	Charlottesville, VA	L
10/25/08	Boston College	Chapel Hill, NC	W
11/08/08	Georgia Tech	Chapel Hill, NC	W
11/15/08	at Maryland	College Park, MD	L
11/22/08	NC State	Chapel Hill, NC	W
11/29/08	at Duke	Durham, NC	W

	Coaches Hot Seat Prediction		8-4

Coaches Hot Seat Analysis

The most interesting question about Butch Davis is: Why did he leave Miami in 2000 after rebuilding the Hurricane football program for a job with Cleveland Browns? Yes, money probably played a roll in his decision, because Miami does not pay its head football coaches a competitive wage, but money doesn't totally explain why Davis would put so much time and effort into bring Miami back from NCAA sanctions, only to take a job with the woeful Browns. We believe that before the Cleveland Browns job was offered to Davis, he verbally agreed to take the Alabama job (after the Tide had fired Mike Dubose), but clearly between that verbal agreement with Bama and the press conference introducing him as the new coach, the Browns moved into the picture. Maybe it was a great offer by the Browns that Davis could not refuse, but whatever the reason for Butch Davis' decision to move to the NFL, he lost six years (2001-2006) of coaching college football when he could have been building a power at Miami or at another school like Alabama. In 2008, at 57 years of age, Butch Davis finds himself as the head coach of a school in North Carolina that is not only not a traditional football power, but a school that has not been a serious player in college football in years, except for a brief period under Mack Brown in the mid-1990s (and Dick Crum in the early 80s). One thing Mack Brown did prove is that a winning football program can be built in Chapel Hill, and Butch Davis finds himself and his Tar Heel team in a conference (the ACC) where a breakthrough can be achieved. The ACC is in a period of transition right now with new football coaches at Miami, Boston College, NC State, Georgia Tech, Duke, and Davis at UNC. Boston College had a great first year under Jagodzinski (behind a NFL 1st round QB), but the other first year coaches struggled to achieve much with their football teams, and therein lies the opening for Davis to stake a position in his 2nd year at North Carolina. Certainly Butch Davis when he arrived at UNC was shocked by the lack of talent that he found on his new football team, and there have been some successes in recruiting in his first two classes, but not yet the type of classes that Florida State and Miami have been putting together in recent years. If North Carolina wants to become a perennial contender in the ACC and to get onto the national stage they are going to have to recruit much better, and the easiest way to get great players to your schools is to win football games.

Looking back at the 2007 season, North Carolina was surprisingly competitive in many games, and in 6 of their losses they lost by very close margins (East Carolina, Virginia, Virginia Tech, South Carolina, NC State, and Georgia Tech). Davis' North Carolina team certainly played with a lot more fire and grit, and with much more consistency, than recent Tar Heel teams, and if Davis can keep that momentum up in 2008, UNC will have an opportunity to have a major improvement over the 2007 season.

Coaches Hot Seat Bottom Line

We predict that Butch Davis and North Carolina will have a 8-4 record in 2008. With three out-of-conference game against Rutgers, Connecticut, and Notre Dame one would think that North Carolina would have a tough time getting to a winning season in '08, but two of the games are at home, and if you add in a favorable ACC schedule, maybe a winning or even better record is very possible for the Tar Heels. The season opens easily enough against McNeese State at home, and that means that UNC is 1-0. Week 2 is a quick wake-up call for North Carolina as they travel to New Jersey to play Rutgers. Greg Schiano has built a very good football program at Rutgers, and UNC will have a very hard time keeping up with the talent that Schiano can now put on the field. This should be a very good Big East/ACC football game, but Rutgers gets the win which takes the UNC record to 1-1. In Week 3, Frank Beamer and the Hokies travel to Chapel Hill, and there is still way too much of a difference in these football programs for the Tar Heels to pull the upset. Va. Tech beats UNC, and North Carolina is 1-2. Week 4 may be the biggest game of the year as UNC travels to Miami to play the Hurricanes in Randy Shannon's 2nd year as a head coach. This should be a great football game, with two teams and head coaches fighting to get their first big win of the year, but we see UNC getting the win in the 4th quarter. After four games, UNC is 2-2. After a big win over Miami, North Carolina returns home to play an improving Connecticut team, and this should be another very good Big East/ACC match-up. In a close game we give the edge to UNC, mainly because of the home-field advantage, which runs the North Carolina record to 3-2 after five games. Week 6 will be the highlight of the home games for UNC in '08, as Charlie Weis brings the Irish to Chapel Hill for a fascinating game between two teams that have not met that often, at least from what we can remember. Notre Dame should be improved in '08, but winning on the road at North Carolina will very tough, and we see the Tar Heels beating the Irish by about 10 points. After six games, UNC is 4-2. In Week 7 UNC travels to the lovely hamlet of Charlottesville to play Virginia and after winning three very big games in a row, getting a win on road against UVA will be a hard thing to pull off. In '07 UNC lost a heartbreaker to Virginia at home, and that might be a motivator for the Tar Heels, but we see Virginia getting a win in this game. After seven games, UNC is 4-3. North Carolina did not play Boston College in 2007, and that was definitely a good thing with the QB the Eagles put onto the field. By Week 8 the Tar Heels should be battle hardened, and in another fairly close game we see the Tar Heels getting a win over BC. After eight games, the Tar Heels are 5-3. Week 9 will be a very interesting game to see with Paul Johnson bringing his option-attack and Georgia Tech team to Chapel Hill, in what should be the first of several great games between Davis and Johnson in the coming years. The difference will probably be the home-field in this game as well, as UNC pulls away in the 2nd half to get the win over Georgia Tech. After nine games, UNC is 6-3. Week 10 will be a very difficult trip to College Park, Maryland to play the Terrapins, and although this should be a competitive game, Maryland should be able to get the win. After ten games, UNC is 6-4. The last two games of the year for North Carolina are the two main rivalries that Butch Davis will face, and must dominate in coming years, if he hopes to have a successful run in Chapel Hill. First up is Tom O'Brien's NC State team, which really improved a lot over the 2nd half of the 2007 season. This game between NC State and UNC should be a very good one, but we lean towards the Tar Heels getting the win, which runs the UNC record to 7-4 after eleven games. Week 12 is a trip to Durham to play David Cutcliffe's first Duke team, and although David will have a positive impact upon the Blue Devils in '08, he does not have the horses to hang with UNC in this game. North Carolina gets the win against Duke, which takes their 2008 regular season record to 8-4.

An 8-4 regular season record by Butch Davis and the Tar Heels in 2008 will be a mighty improvement over 2007, but North Carolina is investing a lot of money in Davis ($2 million+ annually) and the boys in Chapel Hill are certainly expecting Butch to be able to turn things around quickly. Yes, 8-4 would be a great improvement over '07, but that record does not win UNC anything (except a trip to play a meaningless exhibition bowl game), and in the coming years Davis will be expected to compete for conference and even national titles at North Carolina, and we are fairly certain he will do just that.

2008 Coaches Hot Seat Prediction: 8-4

Will Butch Davis be back for the 2009 season? YES