Chris Peterson

Date	Opponent	Location	2008 CHS Prediction
8/30/08	Idaho State	Boise, ID	W
9/13/08	Bowling Green	Boise, ID	W
9/20/08	at Oregon	Eugene, OR	W
10/01/08	La. Tech	Boise, ID	W
10/11/08	at Southern Miss	Hattiesburg, MS	W
10/17/08	Hawaii	Boise, ID	W
10/24/08	at San Jose State	San Jose, CA	W
11/01/08	at New Mexico State	Las Cruces, NM	W
11/08/08	Utah State	Boise, ID	W
11/15/08	at Idaho	Moscow, ID	W
11/22/08	at Nevada	Reno, NV	W
11/28/08	Fresno State	Boise, ID	W

	Coaches Hot Seat Prediction		12-0

Coaches Hot Seat Analysis

One thing every college football fan should have near his television is a tape of the 2007
Fiesta Bowl pitting the mighty Oklahoma Sooners against Chris Peterson's Boise State team. Let's just get the facts on the table: Oklahoma ran onto the field that night somewhere between 3 and 5 times the talent of Boise State, but with some innovative play calling, a group of players that were determined not to be intimidated by the Sooners, and one of the greatest calls in the history of the game, the "Statue of Liberty" to win the game in overtime, the Broncos vanquished OU. Rightfully so, the '07 Fiesta Bowl is not a game that Bob Stoops likes to talk about, and can you really blame him for that. Stoops did not have his team ready to play for that game, and clearly as the Fiesta Bowl got underway, the Sooners thought the Broncos were going to be a walkover. Whatever the Oklahoma coaches say about that loss to Boise State, the Sooners were just not motivated to play that game, and we were all treated to another round of Oklahoma not being adequately prepared or in the right frame of mind when they lost to West Virginia for the '08 Fiesta Bowl. Oklahoma was not ready to play Boise State in '07, but Chris Peterson and the Broncos won the game and completed one of the best college football seasons in recent memory.

After a great 2006, several of us could tell right off in '07 that Boise State had taken a step back, and we still don't really know if it was because of less talent or if the Boise State coaches had taken their eye off the ball, if only slightly. A critical test in '07 was the 2nd game of the year at Washington, where Boise State played totally out of sorts, and looked totally unprepared for the game. As we all saw, Washington went on to finish the '07 season at 4-9, and that loss to UW by Boise State stood out, that is until the Broncos finished the season by losing to Hawaii and to East Carolina in a bowl game. Hawaii and East Carolina were very good teams in '07, but against both of those teams Boise State did not have the same punch they had in 2006, and that is a very interesting development to us. This past spring a member of Coaches Hot Seat was up in Boise on business and he quietly inquired about the Boise State football program around town, and spoke with a few movers and shakers at the terrific Grove Hotel in downtown Boise, and it seems some changes are afoot. Overall it seems there is a new dedication, maybe a rededication by both the coaches and players, after what many people around Boise consider even a 10-3 record in '07 as a pretty big disappointment. We believe that Boise State had the talent and the coaching staff to run the table in '07, but for whatever reason they ended up with 3 losses, and we are going to be fascinated to see how the Broncos come out to play in 2008.

Coaches Hot Seat Bottom Line

We predict that Chris Peterson and Boise State will have a 12-0 record in 2008. Looking over the 2008 Boise State schedule our very first reaction was that they are going to run the table again. After considering a 2nd undefeated regular season in three years for Boise State, we again put the idea out for debate, and although the schedule looked tougher on the 2nd look, 12-0 is a very real possibility for the Broncos in 2008. The season opens easy enough with home game against Idaho State, which means that the Broncos are 1-0 after one. The schedule gets a lot tougher in week 2 as MAC team Bowling Green travels to Boise for what should be a very good game. Bowling Green had an 8-5 record in 2007 and they will bring a pretty good team to Boise, but the Broncos should pull away in the 2nd half to run their record to 2-0. Week 3 is a trip to Eugene, Oregon to play one of the biggest games since the monumental upset of Oklahoma in the '07 Fiesta Bowl. Oregon is one of the premier football programs in the Pac-10, but there is a backstory to this game that raises the stakes for everyone, especially the two head coaches, Chris Peterson of Boise State and Mike Bellotti of Oregon. Since a 11-1 record in 2001, Mike Bellotti has had 6, 5, 6, 2, 6, and 4 losses in the last 6 seasons, and it doesn't take a genius to understand that influential Oregon alumni are about fed up with Southern Cal's dominance of the Pac-10. There is a lot of money being spent to outfit and provide for anything one could imagine for the Oregon football team, and 2008 is the defacto "put up or shut up" time for Mike Bellotti. One thing that cannot happen for Bellotti is for a Boise State team with about 2/3's of the talent of Oregon, to come into Autzen Stadium and beat the Ducks. If Boise State does beat Oregon, then the very obvious question that will be asked by many Oregon fans is: Why is Chris Peterson not the Oregon head football coach? Peterson spent six years at Oregon as an assistant coach and no doubt he realizes that the Oregon program would provide him with the resources, platform, a great state university, and a conference in the Pac-10 that could compete against any football team in the country, and we believe Peterson would walk from Boise to Eugene for the Ducks job (with a stopover on the walk at the fabulous Sunriver Resort near Bend, Oregon for a round of golf and massage!). Now we are not going to say that Bellotti has not done a good job in Eugene, because by any measure he has done a "good" job in his 13 seasons at Oregon, but is "good" really good enough for the people that are writing the checks? We don't think so, and we believe that Oregon will need no worse than a 2nd place finish in the Pac-10 in '08 and a win over Boise State for Bellotti to keep his job. If Oregon does lose to Boise State at home, then not only does it set Boise State up for a run to a 12-0 regular season, Mike Bellotti will be under tremendous pressure to win a number of the games left on the schedule or face the risk of losing his job. As for the game itself, we believe Boise State will get the win in a close one and move their record to 3-0. In week 4 Derek Dooley brings his La. Tech team to Boise, and if La. Tech can make the same type of jump they made in their first year under Dooley, then they will be a real factor in the WAC conference. In this game, Boise and their home-field advantage will just be too much for La. Tech, and the Broncos will move their record to 4-0. Week 5 is a very interesting game with Boise State traveling to Hattiesburg, Mississippi to play Southern Miss. This will be Larry Fedora's first team at Southern Miss and no doubt the Golden Eagle fans will turn out in droves for this game. In what should be a very good, and a fairly high scoring game, we see Boise State pulling away in the 2nd half to run their record to 5-0. In week 6 Hawaii visits Boise with a new head coach, but probably still with the same chip on their shoulder that they played with under June Jones. This should be a pretty good game, but again the Boise "blue home-field" will be the big difference as the Broncos move to 6-0. Week 7 brings a trip to San Jose to play Dick Tomey's Spartans team. Dick Tomey has done about as well as anyone could in a very tough place to win football games, and this could be another spot where Tomey gives a top ranked team a hard time. In a closer than expected game, Boise State should get a 10 to 14 point win over San Jose State to run their record to 7-0. Week 8 brings another interesting road trip to Las Cruces, New Mexico to play Hal Mumme's New Mexico State team. Las Cruces is an out of the way place to go play a football game, and Boise State might be sluggish early in this game, but the Broncos should pull away for a convincing win in the 2nd half. After eight games, Boise State is 8-0. Week 9 brings Utah State to Boise and this should be a pretty easy home win for the Broncos, which takes their record to 9-0. Week 10 is a trip to play in one of the most unusual home-fields in I-A football, Idaho's Kibbie Dome, which is a place that you feel like you are watching a football game in a basketball arena. The Kibbie Dome is going through a renovation, but wherever Boise State plays Idaho, the Broncos will get the win. After ten games, Boise State is 10-0. Week 11 will be a big challenge for Boise State as they travel to Reno to play Nevada. Playing in Reno in late November is always a crapshoot, but almost for sure it is going to be cold, and there could be be ice and snow swirling around. With Boise State coming into this game at 10-0, the pressure will really be on the Broncos to finish out the season undefeated, and in what should be a very close game, Boise State gets the win over Nevada with a couple of late scores. After eleven games, the Broncos are 11-0. In 2007 Boise State went to Fresno and whipped up on Pat Hill's Fresno State team (34-21), and no doubt that game will not be forgotten when the Bulldogs travel to Boise to wrap up the regular season. Boise State will be riding high with a 10-0 record, top 10 ranking, and a trip to a BCS Bowl if they can beat Fresno State, and this should be a great game that the entire nation will be watching. We see a close game until the 3rd quarter, when Boise State's talent and fans turn the intensity up a notch and pull away from Fresno State to get the win and finish the regular season at 12-0.

A 2nd undefeated regular season in three seasons will be a mighty accomplishment for Peterson and his Boise State team, and it will open up all kind of post-season opportunities for the Broncos and for Chris Peterson as big-time head coaching jobs open up in December 2008. There is nothing wrong with a very good head coach moving up to a better opportunity (like Urban Meyer's move from Utah to Florida, Mack Brown's move from UNC to Texas, and Paul Johnson's move from Navy to Georgia Tech, just to name a few) and we think Boise State will do very well in the post-Peterson era, just as they have done well since Nutt, Koetter, and Hawkins moved on to bigger jobs.

2008 Coaches Hot Seat Prediction: 12-0

Will Chris Peterson be back for the 2009 season? YES*

*NO if the right job opens up and is offered to Peterson. What is the right job? Washington, Oregon, or USC.