Dave Wannstedt

Date	Opponent	Location	2008 CHS Prediction
8/30/08	Bowling Green	Pittsburgh, PA	W
9/06/08	Buffalo	Pittsburgh, PA	W
9/20/08	Iowa	Pittsburgh, PA	W
9/27/08	at Syracuse	Syracuse, NY	L
10/02/08	at USF	Tampa, FL	L
10/18/08	at Navy	Annapolis, MD	W
10/25/08	Rutgers	Pittsburgh, PA	L
11/01/08	at Notre Dame	South Bend, IN	L
11/08/08	Louisville	Pittsburgh, PA	W
11/22/08	at Cincinnati	Cincinnati, OH	L
11/28/08	West Virginia	Pittsburgh, PA	L
12/06/08	at Connecticut	East Hartford, CT	L

	Coaches Hot Seat Prediction		5-7

Coaches Hot Seat Analysis

Dave Wannstedt's tenure at Pitt and his coaching career in general are very troubling to us here at Coaches Hot Seat, because we think so much of his long-time mentor Jimmy Johnson. Jimmy Johnson only coached 10 years in college, 5 years at Oklahoma State and 5 years at Miami, but his impact upon the game ranks up there with the best coaches in the history of the game. Johnson is best known in the public for his tenure as the head coach of the Dallas Cowboys, but his 5 years at Miami where he put up a 52-9 (.852) record were more impressive in our eyes. Okay, Jimmy Johnson was a great football coach, so why has one of his top assistants for so many years, Dave Wannstedt struggled so much as a head coach? In 11 seasons in the NFL as a head coach of the Chicago Bears and Miami Dolphins Wannstedt had a record of 82-86, and he is now 16-19 (.457) in three years at Pitt. The 2007 season was particularly troubling, because up until the season ending win against West Virginia, a very good case could have been made that Pitt was worse in year three than they were in year one under Wannstedt. Another troubling item is that according to Rivals.com Pitt's recruiting classes are getting worse, not better in the last three years (Pitt's recruiting classes 2006 #21, 2007 #26, 2008 # 28 - Rivals.com). That is just very odd, because so much has been made about Wannstedt's ability to recruit the players to Pitt that Walt Harris could not. Whatever is going on with Wannstedt, something is just not right and what exactly the problem is, is one of the most intriguing issues relative to Dave Wannstedt.

One of the best ways to get a measure of a football coach is to stand very close to and watch him in practice or especially in pre-game warmups and watch how he interacts with his players and assistant coaches. The great football coaches are much like generals before the battle and they always have command of the scene and the respect of their players and coaches. Check-out Eisenhower meeting with the troops just before D-Day below. "Ike" had the respect of these men, even though all of them knew they would face a fierce battle with the Germans in France.

Getting back to Dave Wannstedt, we have had the opportunity to watch him close-up in several different situations going back to his days as a NFL head coach, but especially in a few games since he has been at Pitt. It is our opinion that for whatever reason Wannstedt does not have the full respect of his players and coaches, and that lack of respect is directly impacting the ability of Pitt football to fully realize its potential. That brings us to the West Virginia game of last season, and how in the world a then 4-7 Pitt team went into Morgantown and beat a Mountaineer team that had much more talent and was playing for a spot in the national championship game. One thing that we picked up from people in Pittsburgh the week before the WVU game was that the Pitt coaches were putting a tremendous amount of effort into the West Virginia game, almost like they thought their jobs were on the line if they lost to West Virginia. It was easy to see that the Pitt team was really amped up for the WVU game, and conversely West Virginia was as tight as any team we have seen in a regular season game in years. Clearly that night, Rich Rodriguez was very tight, and that was reflected directly in his team's play against Pitt. Whatever the reasons for Pitt's win over West Virginia last season, that win proved that Pitt could play at a much higher level than it has in most of Wannstedt's tenure at Pitt, and that raised more questions than if WVU had beaten the hell out of Pitt that night. If Pitt could play like that in one game, how in the hell could they have played so poorly in so many other games earlier in this season. That is the conundrum of Dave Wannstedt, because if you look at who he learned the game from, mainly Jimmy Johnson, it does not make sense that he has made so little progress in three years at Pitt.

What is it then? What is the difference between Jimmy Johnson and Dave Wannstedt? We believe that Wannstedt and his coaches work hard in recruiting and coaching up their players, but if one could have followed around Johnson for a week when he was the head coach at Miami, and a week spent following Wannstedt at Pitt, there would be a noticeable difference. No, there wouldn't be a big difference in the amount of hours worked, but there would be a massive difference in the things that Johnson thought were most important and spent the most time on, and what Wannstedt spends his time on at Pitt. If Jimmy Johnson parachuted into Pitt tomorrow and took over the football team, what would he do differently than Wannstedt? We don't know the exact answer to that question, but we would guess that Johnson would put a lot more emphasis on holding his assistants accountable for preparation and coaching their players and he would focus on making Pitt a lot stronger and more physical football team. Too many times in the last three years at Pitt under Wannstedt, we have watched other teams push around the Pitt offensive and defensive lines, and that would just not be acceptable to a Jimmy Johnson coached team. The other thing that Johnson focused on, and all the great football coaches have put an emphasis on, was preparing his teams mentally to play each and every game with an emphasis on being at the just the right pitch of attitude and emotion relative to the importance of the game. Yes, there is a difference between Jimmy Johnson and Dave Wannstedt, and those differences add up to a big difference in the win and loss columns.

Coaches Hot Seat Bottom Line

We predict that Dave Wannstedt and Pitt will have an 5-7 record in 2008. The 2008 season starts out just the way Wannstedt and Pitt needed it to start out, with Bowling Green and Buffalo at home. Although Pitt should find a way to win both games, that doesn't mean they will be easy wins, and if these first two games are close, that could send a troubling signal for the rest of the '08 season. The third game brings the struggling Iowa Hawkeyes to Pittsburgh, and this will be a game that both Kirk Ferentz and Dave Wannstedt will really need to win. In what should be a very close game, we see Pitt getting the win over Iowa to run their record to 3-0. Last season Syracuse almost beat Pitt in Pittsburgh, and the Carrier Dome will be a much tougher place to play the Orange in '08. In another close game we see Syracuse beating Pitt, which runs the Panthers record to 3-1. Week 5 brings a very tough trip to Tampa to play USF, and we think Leavitt will have the Bulls cooking in '08, so another loss runs the Pitt record to 3-2. Last year Pitt lost a heartbreaker of a game to Navy at Heinz Field, and after two straight losses we see Pitt bouncing back to beat the midshipmen in Annapolis. Pitt is 4-2 after 6 games. After a decent start to the year, Pitt turns toward home with the hopes of a winning season and possible bowl game. The bad news is that the last 6 games are tough and those games start with Rutgers coming to Heinz Field to play Pitt on October 25. In what could be the turning point game to Pitt's season, we see Rutgers winning a close game which sends Pitt's record to 4-3. Up next is a trip to South Bend to play Notre Dame in a game that both Charlie Weis and Wannstedt will want to win very badly. The Irish should be improved in '08, and in what should be another close game, Pitt gets another loss to run their record to 4-4. With a .500 record and 4 Big East games left on the schedule, Wannstedt knows that he needs to find at least 2 wins in those last 4 games to make a case that he should keep his job. Louisville is first up at home, and Pitt in what will be about the 9th close game of the year, finds a way to get a win, which puts their record at 5-4. One win down, and at least one more needed out of the final three for Wannstedt to keep his job. A trip to play Brian Kelly and the Cincinnati Bearcats is on tap next, and this is a game that Wannstedt cannot not afford to lose. Kelly is only in his 2nd season at Cincinnati, and there will be no excuse for Wannstedt to lose to a Cincinnati team in his 4th year at Pitt. We see Cincinnati getting this win which runs the Pitt record to 5-5. Now with only 2 games left on the schedule for Pitt, and 1 win needed just to get to .500, the pressure will really be building on Wannstedt to make something happen. Just when a good memory is needed, West Virginia arrives to play Pitt at Heinz Field. West Virginia is loaded with talent, and no doubt many WVU players will want to avenge the 2007 loss to the Panthers. West Virginia will not be playing tight this year under Bill Stewart and we see the Mountaineers beating Pitt by at least a touchdown. A loss to WVU puts the Pitt record at 5-6, and the Pitt fans are now in all out rebellion against Wannstedt, which really makes a win against UConn in the final game a necessity to at least to have a chance to hang onto his job. Randy Edsall did a nice job in winning 9 games at UConn in 2007, and we believe that the Huskies will be very tough at home in '08. That is bad news for Wannstedt, because Pitt has to travel to East Hartford to try and get the '08 record to what would still be a disappointing 6-6. We see UConn beating the Panthers, which sends the '08 Pitt record to 5-7, which would run Wannstedt's overall record at Pitt to 21-26.

If Dave Wannstedt does indeed put up a 5-7 record in 2008, we cannot imagine that the Pitt fans and alumni would allow his tenure to continue at Pittsburgh. Wannstedt got a three-year contract extension last December from Pitt, but does anyone really believe that the AD at Pitt, Steve Pederson, knows anything about hiring football coaches? After Wannstedt had signed his extension, the Chancellor at Pittsburgh, Mark A. Nordenberg said, "Though everyone who cares about Pitt football wishes that this season had produced more victories on the field, clear signs of progress can be seen in this young, talented and clearly committed team." If Pitt does put up a 5-7 record in 2008, we will be interested to see what Chancellor Nordenberg has to say about Dave Wannstedt's progress after 4 seasons in the head coaching job at Pitt.

2008 Coaches Hot Seat Prediction: 5-7

Will Dave Wannstedt be back for the 2009 season? NO

Potential Replacements: Brady Hoke (Ball State), Brent Venables (Oklahoma DC), Bud Foster (Virginia Tech DC), Butch Jones (Central Michigan), Calvin Magee (Michigan OC), Charlie Strong (Florida DC), Dan Mullen (Florida OC), Dave Christensen (Missouri OC), Michael Haywood (Notre Dame OC), Mike Locksley (Illinois OC), Paul Chryst (Wisconsin OC), Paul Rhodes (Auburn DC), Skip Holtz (East Carolina), Steve Sarkisian (USC OC), Tim Murphy (Harvard), Todd Graham (Tulsa), Turner Gill (Buffalo), Will Muschamp (Texas Co-DC)