DAVID CUTCLIFFE

Age:  54

School:  Duke

Alma Mater:  Alabama, 1976

Conference:  ACC

Salary:  $1,500,000

Official Bio:   www.goduke.com

Years Coaching:  7

Career Record:  44 - 29   .603

Years at School:  1

Record at Duke:  0 - 0   .000

2007 Record:  0 - 0   .000

2007 Cost per Win:  $0

Attorney/Agent:  

Contract: 

December 2008 Buyout:  $1,500,000

Coaches Hot Seat Analysis

The NCAA commercials that talk about how few athletes will be playing professional sports are a great way to remind kids of the long-shot of ever getting paid for tossing a ball around, but David Cutcliffe is another example of someone that focused his undergraduate years on coaching and that has paid off in a big way in his life.  Cutcliffe entered Alabama in the early 70s right on the cusp of the Tide's 10 year run of great football and went to work as a student assistant to Paul "Bear" Bryant.  Bryant was bringing in so many QBs each year, several just to keep them away from other schools, that high-school QB Cutcliffe probably looked around and realized that he could get a lot more out of his Alabama years by watching and learning from the "Bear," and that is exactly what he did.  To that point, whether an athlete is a starter on the field or not, if coaching is something that a student-athlete is interested in, then they should really start paying attention and learning during their college careers, which will certainly give a future coach a leg-up on the competition. 

David Cutcliffe's first chance at being a head coach was with Ole Miss in 1998, and as we have documented in this blog last year during the Ed Orgeron controversy, Cutcliffe's record (44-29  .603) was by far the best put up in Oxford since Coach Johnny Vaught retired (Cutcliffe's record at Ole Miss will be a very good standard for Houston Nutt to shoot for with the

Rebels).  After getting fired at Ole Miss and spending two more years as the offensive coordinator at Tennessee, Cutcliffe is back as a head coach at Duke, and the challenge he now faces is certainly more daunting than what he faced at Ole Miss.  The one saving thing for Cutcliffe at Duke will be that the ACC is not the SEC, and the opportunity to win football games in the conference will certainly exist, once he gets the Duke team into football shape.

One of the most disappointing things about the Ted Roof era (6-45  .118) at Duke was how little he asked of his Blue Devil players.  One thing that was obvious when watching Duke warm-up before and play during games under Roof was that his team wasn't in very good shape, and that was one of the first things that Cutcliffe noticed once off-season conditioning started.  With Cutcliffe now at Duke we can be assured that his teams will be in at least as good of shape as every team on their schedule and that alone will give the Blue Devils and opportunity to win a few football games.  In five seasons at Duke Ted Roof won 6 football games, 2 in the last three years, so there really is only one way for Cutcliffe to take the Blue Devils football program.  UP!  Why Duke University ever allowed its football program to fall to such depths, especially with what Coach K has done with the basketball team, is a little hard to understand or justify.  Duke recently released a strategic plan for university athletics, which calls for a "changing of the culture" within the football program, but we have to wonder why they have let football flounder around for so long.  Whether the people running Duke are serious about improving the football program or not, David Cutcliffe is already plunging ahead determined to make the football team relative again in the ACC conference.  An interesting question is:  What kind of impact can Cutcliffe have at Duke over the next 10 years?  For Duke fans that wonder what kind of football program they can have, they need to look no further than what Jim Grobe has done at Wake Forest, which is also a small private school that has very high academic standards.  If Jim Grobe can win the ACC, and put the Demon Deacons at the top of the ACC conference every year, then Cutcliffe can as well at Duke, but only after a few years of solid recruiting and the building of up two or three classes of players that understand Cutcliffe's style of coaching.  If David Cutcliffe is the coach for 10 years at Duke, he will have accomplished a lot if he has posted a .500 overall record, played in 5 post-season games, and established Duke as a team in the ACC that other teams are not only concerned about playing, but worried about losing to.  If we had to bet on those goals being accomplished in the next 10 years, we would be on the affirmative side for Cutcliffe.

Coaches Hot Seat Bottom Line

We predict that David Cutcliffe and Duke will have a 4-8 record in 2008.  The 2008 season will be very challenging for Cutcliffe and Duke, and it starts out with quite a challenge with a very good I-AA team, James Madison coming to Durham.  In '07, James Madison almost beat the eventual I-AA runner-up Delaware on the road, and they will be quite a challenge for Cutcliffe's opening game at Duke.  In what should be a very close game we see Duke getting the win, so they start out at 1-0.  In week 2, the Big Ten team Northwestern comes to Durham, and this will be a very good game to judge how much of an impact Cutcliffe has had in the offseason.  In what should also be a very close game, we see Duke getting the first big win of the Cutcliffe era over the Wildcats.  Duke is 2-0.  In week 3 Navy and first year coach Ken Niumatalolo come to Durham, and this game will be a huge challenge for the Duke defense.  Duke and Navy are very even in talent level, so Cutcliffe and his staff should have the advantage in this game.  In what should be another close game, we see Duke winning the game, which takes their record to 3-0.  The ACC schedule begins in week 4, with at trip to Charlottesville to play Virginia.  The difference in talent and overall strength between UVA and Duke will be very apparent in this game, and we see Virginia getting a pretty easy win.  Duke is 3-1.  Next up is a trip to Atlanta to play the option-offense of Georgia Tech, and by week 4 Paul Johnson should have the Yellow Jackets humming along.  In a close game through the first half, we see Georgia Tech pulling away for a convincing win, which takes the Duke record to 3-2.  Miami and Randy Shannon come calling in week 6, and if Duke wants to get an ACC win in '08, this game might be their best chance.  Randy Shannon is in the middle of a total rebuild of both talent and attitude at Miami, and there will be some more hiccups, before things get going again, and Duke in '08 could be one of those bumps in the road.  Miami has way too much talent to lose to Duke, but this will be a very close game, and we wouldn't be surprised if this battle went either way.  Miami should get the win, which takes the Duke record to 3-3.  A trip to play Vanderbilt in Nashville is on tap next, and Vanderbilt is a team that David Cutcliffe is very familiar with from his years at Tennessee.  Vanderbilt has been right on the cusp of moving up in the SEC in recent years, and a loss to Duke, even though the two teams will have very even talent, is not something the Commodores will have on their minds.  We see a very close game with Cutcliffe's experience in beating Vanderbilt being the difference, as Duke gets it first road win in the Cutcliffe era.  Duke is 4-3 after 7 games.  Duke returns to ACC play for the remaining 5 games, and first up is a trip to Winston-Salem to play Jim Grobe and Wake Forest.  If David Cutcliffe and Duke want a blueprint to what they want to build in Durham, they can look across the field at Wake Forest and see what is possible for the Blue Devils in years to come.  Wake Forest should handle Duke pretty easily, and that takes the Duke record to 4-4.  NC State is up next in Durham and Tom O'Brien will no doubt be having quite an impact upon the Wolfpack by this far into his 2nd season.  Duke will have a tough time with the difference in talent level against NC State, and the Wolfpack should win this game pretty easily.  After 9 games, Duke's record is 4-5.  Week 10 brings a trip to play Clemson on the road and the Tigers might be on their way to the ACC title and possible shot at the national championship.  Clemson will totally out-man Duke and this game and get the win, which runs the Duke record to 4-6.  Week 11 is another tough road game in the ACC, as Duke travels to Blacksburg to play Virginia Tech.  The Hokies have way too much talent to lose this game, and Duke will lose their 4th straight game, as their record slips to 4-7.  The Duke season ends with a game against the hated Tar Heels, and this should be a very good measuring stick to how much Cutcliffe has improved the Blue Devils during the season, but also to how well Duke could be in the coming years.  Butch Davis will be at the end of year 2 in Chapel Hill, and should be by Week 12 having a very large impact at North Carolina, and the Tar Heels should beat Duke in this game.  With a loss to North Carolina, Duke's 2008 record ends at 4-8.

If David Cutcliffe can find a way to get 4 wins out of his Duke team in 2008, it will be a mighty accomplishment over the Roof years in Durham.  The Duke players need a big shot of confidence to be able to play against the opponents they will face in '08, and Cutcliffe will at least answer the most basic question of the head coach's competence, which has been in question in recent years at Duke.  We don't believe that football at Duke is hopeless, any more than it was at Wake Forest before Jim Grobe arrived, and we believe that in the coming years David Cutcliffe will make the Blue Devils into a credible contender in the ACC.  Can Duke win the ACC in the modern version of the conference (i.e. a lot tougher conference than when Steve Spurrier was the head coach at Duke)?  Probably not, but Cutcliffe should be able to win a number of ACC games in coming years, and a competitive Duke football team is not something other ACC coaches really want to see on the schedule every year.  By that measure, Cutcliffe was a brilliant hire by Duke, but the proof will be in the wins, and those are still off into the future.  Now, let's see what Cutcliffe can do at Duke in 2008. 

2008 Coaches Hot Seat Prediction:        4-8

Will David Cutcliffe be back for the 2009 season?      YES