Gene Chizik

Date	Opponent	Location	2008 CHS Prediction
8/28/08	South Dakota State	Ames, IA	W
9/06/08	Kent State	Ames, IA	W
9/13/08	at Iowa	Iowa City, IA	L
9/20/08	at UNLV	Las Vegas, NV	W
10/04/08	Kansas	Ames, IA	L
10/11/08	at Baylor	Waco, TX	W
10/18/08	Nebraska	Ames, IA	L
10/25/08	Texas A&M	Ames, IA	W
11/01/08	at Oklahoma State	Stillwater, OK	L
11/08/08	at Colorado	Boulder, CO	L
11/15/08	Missouri	Ames, IA	L
11/22/08	at Kansas State	at Manhattan, KS	L

	Coaches Hot Seat Prediction		5-7

Coaches Hot Seat Analysis

The most striking thing that has stood out to us in the coaching career of Gene Chizik were the defenses he coached at Auburn (2002-04) and Texas (2005-06), which were characterized by aggressiveness, gang tackling, and a very fast pursuit of the ball carrier. We have read in different places that Chizik has been heavily influenced by the "Tampa 2" defense that Tony Dungy ran when he was with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and now with the Indianapolis Colts, but whatever Chizik ran at Auburn and Texas, the overall aggressiveness of his defensive squads is what most impressed us. Of course, it does hurt that Chizik had great talent to work with at Auburn and Texas, but there was a noticeable drop-off in intensity on those two team's defenses in the year after Chizik left, which leads us to believe that his coaching style had a major impact on the success at those two schools. In practice, Chizik doesn't seem to do anything that any other good defensive coach does on a regular basis, but he does expect his players to play to a very high standard, so maybe he does set the bar a little higher, which leads his players to turn up the intensity a notch or two. Of course, the most difficult thing for an assistant coach to do is to translate his coaching style to his new team as a head coach, and Chizik did run into this difficulty in his first year at Iowa State. Chizik also took over a job at Iowa State that struggled in the year before he got there (2006 record: 4-8. You have to give Dan McCarney credit for fielding at least a .500 record team in 5 of his last 7 years at Iowa State, which is a tough place to field winning teams), and the Cyclone defense was in desperate need of an upgrade so that they would be able to compete in the Big 12. The Iowa State defense got a little better as the '07 season progressed, but there must be much more improvement on that side of the ball in a Big 12 conference that is getting tougher everyday.

Coaches Hot Seat Bottom Line

We predict that Gene Chizik and Iowa State will have a 5-7 record in 2008. The Iowa State '08 campaign opens easy enough with I-AA South Dakota State traveling to Ames, and this should be an easy win for a Big 12 team. After one game, Iowa State is 1-0. In 2007, Kent State came to Ames, Iowa and beat the Cyclones, and this is a game that Chizik and his Iowa State team need to win to make a statement on the progress that has been made since Chizik's arrival. In a close game, we see Iowa State getting the win over Kent State to run their record to 2-0. Week 3 is the big cross-state game against Iowa, and no doubt the Hawkeyes will be looking to avenge their disastrous loss to Iowa State in '07. Iowa should be a better team in '08, and this game is in Iowa City, so we see the Hawkeyes getting the win in this one. After three games, the Cyclones are 2-1. Week 4 is one of the critical games of the year for Iowa State, as they travel to Las Vegas to play UNLV. The Running Rebels are coming off a 2-10 record in '07, and they lost their last 8 games to end the season. If Iowa State is going to start competing in the Big 12, they are going to have to be able to beat teams like UNLV, even when they play them on the road. In what should be a very close game, we give Iowa State the slightest of nods, and a win over UNLV runs their record to 3-1. The Big 12 season gets going in week 5 with the Kansas Jayhawks visiting Iowa State, and this will be a good measuring stick game to see how far Iowa State has come in one season. In the last game of the '07 season, Kansas spanked Iowa State 45-7, and the Cyclones will probably struggle to keep this game to within two touchdowns as well. With a loss to Kansas, the Cyclones record drops to 3-2. Week 6 is another huge game for Chizik and the Cyclones as they travel to Waco to play the Baylor Bears and first year head coach Art Briles. In what should be a very close game with two very evenly matched teams, we see Iowa State getting the win on the road. After six games, Iowa State is 4-2. Nebraska visits Ames, Iowa in week 7 and this should be the first of several match-ups between Gene Chizik and Bo Pelini. Pelini will always have the upper-hand in this game, because of Nebraska's tradition and level of talent, but that doesn't mean this game will every be an automatic win for the Huskers. We see a very close game between Iowa State and Nebraska, with the Huskers getting the win in the 4th quarter. After seven games, Iowa State is 4-3. After a 0-2 start to the Big 12 season, Texas A&M visits Iowa State in week 8, and this is a very good game for the Cyclones to get a win against first year A&M head coach Mike Sherman. In what should be another very good Big 12 game, we see Iowa State getting the win, to run their record to 5-3. The Big 12 gets a little tougher in week 9 with a trip to Stillwater to play Oklahoma State. Stillwater is a very tough place to play for visiting teams, and in a game where Oklahoma State really gets their offense going, the Cowboys get the win. After nine games, Iowa State is 5-4. The road trips continue in week 10 when Iowa State travels to Boulder, Colorado to play Dan Hawkins and the Buffs. Colorado has played very well at home under Hawkins, and they should get the win over Iowa State in this fairly close game. After 10 games, Iowa State is 5-5. Missouri arrives in Ames, Iowa in week 11 and the Tigers may be on a run to a Big 12 North title, and they should have way to much firepower for the Cyclones. With a loss to Missouri, Iowa State drops to 5-6. The 2008 season ends with another road trip, this time to Manhattan, Kansas to play Ron Prince and Kansas State. Prince may be need a win in this game to have any chance at a bowl, and in what will be yet another close game, we see KSU getting the win at home, which would drop the Iowa State regular season record to 5-7.

A 5-7 record by Gene Chizik and Iowa State in 2008 would be an improvement on the 3-9 season of '07. That is what Chizik needs to show, constant improvement, and the quickest way to win more games is to toughen up on the defensive side of the ball. In '08 Iowa State gave up an average of almost 32 points a game, and there is just no way to field a winning team in the Big 12 when giving up those kind of points. Iowa State only scored a little over 18 points per game in '07, so it is very easy to see why they only had a 3-9 record. To really take a step forward in '08, Iowa State must bring down the average number of points they allow to below 25 per game. With better defense the offense will have more opportunities, and that is why Gene Chizik and his experience on the defense side of the ball must be brought to bear on the Iowa State program. It is either start playing some serious defense, or the losses will continue to pile up in Ames. We will be watching closely to see if the Iowa State defense starts to show in '08 the kind of aggressiveness and tackling style that were hallmarks of Chizik's defenses at Auburn and Texas.

2008 Coaches Hot Seat Prediction: 5-7

Will Gene Chizik be back for the 2009 season? YES