HOUSTON NUTT

Age:  51

School:  Ole Miss

Alma Mater:  Oklahoma State, 1981

Conference:  SEC

Salary:  $1,700,000

Official Bio:   www.olemisssports.com

Years Coaching:  16

Career Record:  111 - 70  .613

Years at School:  1

Record at Ole Miss:  0 - 0   .000

2007 Record:  0 - 0  .000

2007 Cost per Win:  $131,206

Attorney/Agent:  Jimmy Sexton   

Contract:    

December 2008 Buyout:  $3,000,000

Coaches Hot Seat Analysis

In the days after the 2006 SEC Championship Game when Arkansas had the eventual National Champion Florida Gators on the ropes, if someone had said that Houston Nutt would be the head football coach at Ole Miss in 2008, they would have carted that person away to the loony bin.  Inside the Arkansas football program in December '06 it was a far different story, with Mitch Mustain still seething over being benched against South Carolina and offensive coordinator Guz Malzahn wondering if his future lay somewhere besides Fayetteville.  Whether Houston Nutt knew it or not, the Arkansas football program was about to implode, and Nutt was at least party to blame.  Yes, there were some Arkansas fans that went way over the line, but the core of the problem was Nutt's failure to maintain control of the Arkansas program through the two losing seasons in '04-'05 and when the three-ring circus that was the "Springville Gang" arrived in Fayetteville before the '06 season.  Much like Julius Caesar, Nutt was attacked from within the Arkansas program, and in the end Nutt had only two choices:  Stay and watch a civil war break out among Arkansas fans, or leave for another job to fight another day.  Nutt made the right decision, both for Arkansas and himself, and his move to Ole Miss coupled with the hiring of Bobby Petrino at Arkansas sets up what should be a backyard dogfight over the next half-a-dozen years in the SEC Western division.  In three seasons at Ole Miss, Ed Orgeron's record was 10-25, but of those 25 losses 6 were by five or less points, and 8 were by seven or less points.  If Orgeron had won even 5 more games in his three years, he would probably still be the coach at Ole Miss, and if you add an experienced coach like Houston Nutt to the Rebel mix, a lot more of those close games are going to go Ole Miss' way. 

In 10 seasons at Arkansas Houston Nutt average 7.5 wins a year.  In the last 10 seasons at Ole Miss, Tuberville, Cutcliffe, and Orgeron won 54 games, or 5.4 wins a year.  From where we sit if Nutt can average 7.5 wins a year at Ole Miss over the next 10 years, then that will be a minor miracle in the ever increasing tough SEC.  With Saban, Tuberville, Miles, Petrino, and the rising Sly Croom at Mississippi State to coach against, and throw in two teams each year from the SEC East, Houston Nutt is faced with a very daunting task to even return Ole Miss to a consistently winning football program.  Probably a better question from Ole Miss fans is, can Houston Nutt win the SEC Western division, or gasp, the SEC Championship?  Yes, that is possible, but only in years 5 or 6 at the earliest, which leaves Nutt and Ole Miss fighting like hell in the next few years to gain some kind of foothold in a conference filled with great football coaches and NFL-bound football players.

Coaches Hot Seat Bottom Line

We predict that Houston Nutt and Ole Miss will have a 6-6 record in 2008.

The Ole Miss 2006 football schedule is full of bowl teams from 2007: Memphis, Wake Forest, Florida, Alabama, Arkansas, LSU, and Mississippi State.  We see the Rebels going 1-5 in those games, with only a home win over Memphis in the opening game of the season, which leaves 6 other games to find 5 more wins to get to a .500 record on the season.  A 6-6 record in Nutt's first season in Oxford would be quite an accomplishment, but it can be done because the out-of-conference schedule is not that demanding.  The trip to Wake Forest is almost certainly a loss, but wins against Memphis, Samford, and La. Monroe should almost always be a given no matter who is the head coach at Ole Miss.  There are two very key games on the schedule and both are them at home.  The Vanderbilt game on September 20 and the South Carolina game on October 4 are both very winnable, but will be very close games with very equal talent.  If Nutt can find a way to beat Vandy and the Gamecocks, there is a real chance that the Rebels can get to .500 or better record for the first time since 2003, which would be a great start to the Nutt era in Oxford.

We haven't a clue to how many games or championships that Nutt will win during his tenure at Ole Miss, but there is a real opportunity with a favorable '08 schedule for Nutt, his staff, and the Rebel players to turn the tables, and they all need to seize this opportunity.  If Nutt wants to build the momentum at Ole Miss that he must to generate the excitement that will garner better recruiting classes in future years, 2008 is the year to get that ball rolling.

2008 Coaches Hot Seat Prediction:        6-6

Will Nutt be back for the 2009 season?        YES