NICK SABAN

Age:  57

School:  Alabama

Alma Mater:  Kent State, 1973

Conference:  SEC

Salary:  $3,750,000

Official Bio:   www.rolltide.com

Years Coaching:  12

Career Record:  99 - 48 - 1  .669

Years at School:  1

Record at Alabama:  7 - 6   .538

2007 Record:  7 - 6  .538

2007 Cost per Win:  $500,429

Attorney/Agent:  Jimmy Sexton    

Contract:    

December 2008 Buyout:  $24,000,000

Coaches Hot Seat Analysis

In his last 46 games as a head coach Nick Saban has a record of 22-24 (.478), and those games were coached at three of the most revered names in the game of football:  LSU, the Miami Dolphins, and Alabama.  No doubt, Nick Saban is a great recruiter, and he has proven that he can win championships when he has quality assistants calling the plays, but now Saban must prove that he can win football games and championships at place where any random person picked off the street could win football games.  Alabama has one of the most storied traditions in college football history, and Paul "Bear" Bryant's 25 tenure in Tuscaloosa was just one period of a long history of winning football games and National Titles.  Nick Saban arrived in Tuscaloosa after a series of coaching moves and personal hires by the administration and Trustees at Alabama that would rival any amount of buffoonery in the history of man.  If you had to write a casebook study on how to destroy a football program, your first and last stop would be in Tuscaloosa, Alabama and the blame for that destruction can be laid right at the feet of the people that were making the head coaching hires.  After Gene Stallings retired (more like forced out by the Alabama president and AD) Alabama hired Mike Dubose, Dennis Franchione, Mike Price, and Mike Shula, and the most amazing thing about those coaching hires is that many of the people that made those hires are still working on the payroll at Alabama.  Just amazing, but accountability is evidently not something that is important at Alabama, which brings us to one Nick Saban.  In 2007 Alabama could have gone down to any barber shop or beauty salon in Tuscaloosa and hired any random customer or hair stylist to be the head coach and that person could have won 7 games last year.  What is so remarkable, that when you talk to Alabama fans they talk like Saban actually did something in 2007, but when you take a hard look at the facts Saban actually did less than what any competent high school coach would have done.  First, any competent high school coached hired at Alabama after the country club that Mike Shula was running in Tuscaloosa would have tossed the troublemakers and players (our guess between 12 and 20 players should have been sent packing) that didn't care about winning and started fresh.  If Saban had done that he would have won 7 games.  He didn't and he still won 7 games, which is a great lesson for coaches that decide to sacrifice their principles for the sake of winning.  With more Alabama players getting arrested and into trouble in the offseason, it is clear that Saban has not gotten through to his team that they are not at Alabama to hang out in bars and to fight cops.  In fact, Saban is now in the same position that Phil Fulmer finds himself in that there have been so many off-field incidents, that you really have to wonder if the players respect their head coach and university at all.  With that background, Saban is now faced with the very difficult 2008 season.

Coaches Hot Seat Bottom Line

We predict that Nick Saban and Alabama will have a 7-5 record in 2008.  Our 7-5 prediction for the Tide in '08 would mean that Alabama would win all of their homes games and lose all the games away from Tuscaloosa.  Of those home games, we do see Alabama beating Auburn in Tuscaloosa in the last game of the regular season, which will end the 6-game winning streak that the Tigers have over the Tide.  If for some reason Saban should lose to Tuberville to extend the losing streak to 7 games, all that we write below will be irrelevant, because Saban must beat Auburn in 2008 to really gain creditability with Alabama fans.  A 7-5 record in 2008 would be a one game improvement over the '07 season and the only question for Alabama fans would be, is 7-5 acceptable in Saban's 2nd year at The Capstone?  Nick Saban brought in the top recruiting class in February and no doubt Alabama fans will point to that class as a signal that things are a changing in Tuscaloosa.  The real question is how long are Alabama fans going to tolerate mediocre win/loss records, because even 2009 in the incredibly tough SEC West promises to be a struggle as well.  From where we sit, Nick Saban has 5 years to prove that he can win an SEC Championship at Alabama, because as we stated above any average person picked off any street in America can win 7 games at Alabama.  If by the 5 year mark, the 2011 season, Saban has not brought at least an SEC title to Tuscaloosa, a lot of Alabama fans are going to be asking questions that go someone like, "Why are we paying Saban $4 million a year to do what any average person could do?"  Great question, and one that will not only be asked by Alabama fans, but will be shouted from the every corner of the state if Saban cannot bring home some championships to Tuscaloosa.  Saban must improve on the 2007 season in '08 and he must beat Auburn, and there is just no getting around those facts.  Anything less will be a severe disappointment. 

2008 Coaches Hot Seat Prediction:        7-5

Will Saban be back for the 2009 season?        YES