PAUL JOHNSON

Age:  51

School:  Georgia Tech

Alma Mater:  Western Carolina University, 1979

Conference:  ACC

Salary:  $1,600,000

Official Bio:   www.ramblinwreck.com

Years Coaching:  11

Career Record:  107 - 39   .733

Years at School:  1

Record at Georgia Tech:  0 - 0   .000

2007 Record:  0 - 0   .000

2007 Cost per Win:  $0

Attorney/Agent:   Jack Reale

Contract:     

December 2008 Buyout:  $750,000

Coaches Hot Seat Analysis

No matter what business you are in, there are always people that you keep your eye on.  We have been keeping an eye on Paul Johnson going back to his Georgia Southern days, and we are betting that a lot of head football coaches in college have been eyeing Johnson as well.  The real story with Paul Johnson is not his triple option flexbone offense, but rather Paul Johnson has won football games everywhere he has been, and that "winning attitude" or rather a "hatred of losing" percolates off Johnson just as it does a Michael Jordan or Tiger Woods.  Johnson's triple option flexbone is not that much different than what Rodriguez will run at Michigan or what Meyer/Mullen run at Florida, which Johnson himself explains in a column by Mark Schlabach, ESPN.com, earlier this year.  We have no doubt that Johnson's offense will work in the ACC and against other BCS schools, because Johnson will not tolerate it not working.  There are a number of coaches that we here at Coaches Hot Seat classify as "a lifeforce" that imbue their football team with that extra amount of energy that is often the difference between winning and losing.  If you want to know which coaches have this "lifeforce" look no further than our Winningest Active Coaches webpage, where you will find Paul Johnson checking-in at the #15 spot with a 107-39 (.733) record.  (The head football coaches that really make a difference in their teams winning or losing football games, will almost always have a career record over .650, and there are currently 34 active coaches above that mark in major college football.  Some head coaches worked at tough spots or took over bad programs early in their career which can really impact an overall winning percentage.)

In the above mentioned Mark Schlabach article Paul Johnson is quoted, "Our system isn't much different from what everybody else is running," Johnson said.  "Pretty much everybody is running what we're running, but they're doing it out of the shotgun.  We're just doing it from under center."  Yes, that is true, but there is one major difference in the Johnson offense that causes all kinds of headaches for opposing teams.  That would be the offensive blocking schemes, which we would describe as "a dive toward the defensive linemen's ankles."  Anyone that has played against an option offense that had offensive linemen diving at your ankles the whole game knows how miserable that is, and why eventually defenses wear down and give up increasingly more amounts of yardage on the ground.  Alabama, Oklahoma, and to a lesser extent Nebraska ran a similar offensive linemen blocking scheme in the 1970s, where the main objective was to get the front defensive men onto the ground and out of the play so the QB can see the linebackers and safeties well, which gives him the best chance to make the right option decision.  If the offensive linemen have any athletic ability at all (which Johnson will have at Georgia Tech), it will be very difficult for any team to defend the Tech offense in coming seasons, unless they have a very seasoned group of linebackers, defensive ends, and safeties.  Besides the offensive linemen blocking scheme that bedevils opposing teams, Johnson also has the same knack for calling the right play at the right time that Steve Spurrier had (may still have) in his heyday.  If an opposing defensive player(s) start to lean or favor a particular side of the ball, WAMMO!, Johnson is going the other way with a receiver reverse or a short pass over the middle.  Having the knack to see the entire field, especially from the sideline, and to call the right play at the exact right time is on the order of a Leonardo da Vinci painting or sculpture, and anyone that got to see Steve Spurrier call offensive plays in the mid-1990s at Florida knows exactly what we are talking about.

Paul Johnson is going to have an immense impact upon the ACC, because the ACC is ripe for the picking right now.  Miami is down, Florida State is down, Virginia Tech is only holding serve, Clemson is trying to rise, and Wake Forest, Boston College, and North Carolina are trying to get through the door.  Georgia Tech which is the 17th winningest major college football school in the history of the game has a proud tradition, and they again have a coach on par with a George O'Leary, Bobby Ross, or a Bobby Dodd.  That Paul Johnson is now the head football coach at Georgia Tech is bad news for the ACC, and it is going to make the ACC a lot more interesting to watch in the coming years.

Coaches Hot Seat Bottom Line

We predict that Paul Johnson and Georgia Tech will have an 8-4 record in 2008.  Paul Johnson has caught a lucky break with the 2008 Georgia Tech schedule, because he has two teams on the schedule that Coaches Hot Seat could beat with players drawn from our touch football league.  Those two I-AA teams are Jacksonville State to open the season and Gardner-Webb in week 6.  Having a guaranteed 2-0 record before a play is called is a nice thing, but Johnson also benefits from the fact that the ACC is in so much flux right now.  After Jacksonville State in the opener, Tech has a huge game on the road against Boston College in Beantown.  BC will be starting a new QB, and we think they will struggle against Johnson's offense, and since it is early in the season and Boston has nice weather in September, we see the Yellow Jackets getting a win in this one.  2-0 after two games.  The next game will not be so easy, with Virginia Tech having both an equal on the sidelines in Frank Beamer, but also a lot more talent, which means Tech will be 2-1 after three games.  An interesting SEC/ACC matchup is up next with Sly Croom bringing his Bulldogs to Atlanta to play Tech in Bobby Dodd Stadium, which Croom surely played or coached in during his years at Alabama under Bear Bryant.  If Croom didn't play or coach against Tech when he was at Bama, he will certainly know the history that goes with Georgia Tech football, and he will have his Miss. State team ready to play.  We see Johnson and Tech winning a close one over the Bulldogs, which takes the Tech record to 3-1.  Next up is David Cutcliffe and Duke in Atlanta, but the talent level is so different in this game, Ga. Tech should have no problem beating the Blue Devils.  That takes the Ga. Tech record to 4-1 and the Yellow Jacket fans know they their team will be 5-1 with Gardner-Webb up next.  After Gardner-Webb, Tech gets a dose of reality though, with a trip to play a very talented Clemson team.  Tommy Bowden should have the Tigers on a roll by week 7, so a loss at Clemson takes the Tech record to 5-2.  Heading back home to Atlanta, Virginia and Florida State are up next, and with Johnson's offense really humming now we see the Tech record at 7-2 after those two games.  By now the Yellow Jacket fans are going wild as they see North Carolina and Miami left on the schedule before the game with the hated Bulldogs.  We see Butch Davis and the Tar Heels winning a close one against Tech in Chapel Hill, but Georgia Tech will bounce back against Miami at home.  That makes the Tech record at 8-3, with only Georgia left in Athens.  Unfortunately, Mark Richt and the Bulldogs will probably be playing for a big game in the post-season, which means Richt will run his and Georgia's streak against Tech to 8-0/8 straight games by UGA over Tech.

8-4 will be quite a record for Johnson's first year at Georgia Tech, especially after the mediocrity of the Gailey years, but we are betting that 8-4 will only be average from Paul Johnson's point of view, and that is exactly why Johnson will be a big winner for as long as he remains the head coach of the Yellow Jackets.  In 22 seasons at Georgia Tech, Bobby Dodd won 165 games and had a .713 winning percentage.  If Paul Johnson coaches at Tech into his early 70s and completed 22 seasons at Tech, we would bet today he would equal or better Dodd's winning percentage, which would be an accomplishment on par with many of he best coaches in the history of the game.

2008 Coaches Hot Seat Prediction:        8-4

Will Paul Johnson be back for the 2009 season?       YES