Pete Carroll

Year	School	Record	Bowl
2001	USC	6-6	Las Vegas
2002	USC	11-2	Orange
2003	USC	12-1	Rose
2004	USC	13-0	Orange
2005	USC	12-1	Rose
2006	USC	11-2	Rose
2007	USC	11-2	Rose
Career		76-14	.844
	USC	76-14	.844

2008 SCHEDULE

Date	Opponent	Location	2008 CHS Prediction
8/30/08	at Virginia	Charlottesville, VA	W
9/13/08	Ohio State	Los Angeles, CA	W
9/25/08	at Oregon State	Corvallis, OR	L
10/04/08	Oregon	Los Angeles, CA	W
10/11/08	Arizona State	Los Angeles, CA	W
10/18/08	at Washington State	Pullman, WA	W
10/25/08	at Arizona	Tucson, AZ	W
11/01/08	Washington	Los Angeles, CA	W
11/08/08	California	Los Angeles, CA	W
11/15/08	at Stanford	Palo Alto, CA	W
11/29/08	Notre Dame	Los Angeles, CA	W
12/06/08	at UCLA	Pasadena, CA	W

	Coaches Hot Seat Prediction		11-1

Coaches Hot Seat Analysis

Paul "Bear" Bryant said once, "If you were to ask me if football is a coach's game, I'd have to say it is. And always was." As Coach Bryant knew, a head football coach can have a massive positive or negative impact upon a football program, and Pete Carroll is the ultimate example of that belief. In 2001 Pete Carroll took over a traditional football power in Southern Cal, but the Trojans were far from a great college football team in the 20 or so years before Carroll took over USC. In 7 seasons at USC, Carroll has put up a 76-14 (.844) record, and in the previous 18 seasons at USC four coaches (Paul Hackett, John Robinson, Larry Smith, and Ted Tollner) had a collective record of 126-84-5 (.586). Wow! Now if that doesn't tell you that coaching is everything in college football, then nothing will. Many of us thought that Southern Cal was a sleeping giant just ready to break out, but what we did not understand is that USC needed a very particular type of coach to get their football program back on the national stage. Los Angeles is town built on style as much as substance, and for people that show up in LA with both of those attributes they often find themselves at the top of their chosen profession. Pete Carroll arrived at USC with 11 years of college coaching experience (including a year on the staff at Ohio State under Earl Bruce in 1980 when they played USC in the Rose Bowl) and a number of years in the NFL including head coaching stints with the Jets and Patriots (A current member of Coaches Hot Seat got to meet Carroll and watch him coach when he was with the New York Jets at their headquarters on Long Island). Carroll's experience, especially in the large media markets of San Francisco, Boston, and New York gave him some insight into the sort of approach he would take in rebuilding the USC football program. Carroll's natural enthusiasm resonated perfectly with top recruits that were looking to play at a top program where football could be a "fun" and also a "winning" experience, and Carroll has racked-up one top recruiting class after another. Once Carroll got his recruits onto the USC campus he quickly made an impact by putting up a 11-2 record in year two, and then won back to back national championships in years 3 and 4. Of course, in year five Pete Carroll and the Trojans had a an undefeated season in their grasp with Texas on the ropes late in the national title game, but USC could not execute on a key 4th down play and Vince Young made them pay dearly for that mistake. In the last two seasons, there have also been a few hiccups, at Oregon State and against UCLA in '06, and a dreadful loss to Stanford in the Coliseum and a very mediocre game against Oregon in '07. There have also been some USC games in recent years where the Trojans didn't look fully motivated against less talented teams, and that tells us that Carroll and his coaches are taking their eyes off some of things that made USC such a brute of a football team between 2002-2005.

Pete Carroll has put up some great numbers in 7 seasons at USC, but he also was operating at a time when the Pac-10 as a conference was down. One of the parlor games at Coaches Hot Seat is to try to imagine how a team like USC might perform in the Big 12 or SEC, and overall we think the Trojans would stand up pretty well against the much tougher competition in those conferences. Would USC have won or advanced to the conference championship game in the Big 12 or SEC every time in the last 6 seasons? No, but Southern Cal would have been one of the two or three favorites to win the conference each year, and that says a lot to what great work Carroll has done at USC. As the Pac-10 adds new head football coaches, the conference is more than likely going to get much tougher in the near-term future and it will be interesting to see how that impacts USC and Carroll. Obviously, Pete Carroll has an interest in returning to the NFL in the right situation, or he would not have be listening to offers from NFL owners in recent years. We believe there are two NFL jobs that Pete Carroll would leave USC for, assuming that he would have total if not almost total control over the NFL team's football operations. Those two jobs are the San Francisco 49ers, which has a head coach in Mike Nolan that is on his last legs, and a possible new NFL franchise in Los Angeles. We think that if the York family offered Pete Carroll the keys to the San Francisco 49ers (and about $7 million a year over 7 years) , Carroll would relish the opportunity to follow in the footsteps of one of his mentors (Bill Walsh), and don't forget that Carroll grew up in the SF Bay area. A new NFL franchise in Los Angeles is probably a fool's errand, so Pete Carroll leaving USC for a NFL job will probably come down to if Mike Nolan is able to hold onto his job with the San Francisco, and if the York's are willing to hand over a lot of the power that they now hold over football decisions with the 49ers. If both of those things happened then Pete Carroll might just be the first choice for San Francisco, and with a new 49ers football stadium on the drawing board and plenty of young good talent on the team (especially on defense), this is a job that Pete Carroll would probably lean towards taking. Would Pete Carroll win with the 49ers? We tend to think that Carroll would win big at San Francisco, but one thing is sure it would be a lot more fun to be around San Francisco with Carroll on the sidelines for the 49ers, and that alone would be a good enough reason to make the coaching change. Maybe we would even start using our 49ers season ticket again! Before we send Carroll off to the NFL, let's see what he and the Trojans can do in 2008.

Coaches Hot Seat Bottom Line

We predict that Pete Carroll and USC will have a 11-1 record in 2008. USC has one of the toughest opening series of games that we can remember, with a trip to Virginia, Ohio State at home, Oregon State on the road, and Oregon & Arizona State at home. If USC can find a way to emerge after their first 5 games undefeated, then they will be off to an unstoppable run to the national title game, but that is going to be a lot easier said than done. The opening game for the USC Trojans is a fascinating trip to Charlottesville, Virginia and the home of Jefferson to play the Virginia Cavaliers. It is going to be very hot and humid with a 12:30 PM kick-off deep in the heart of Virginia, and that heat and humidity is something the Trojans are going to have to be prepared for. It does get hot in Los Angeles, but most of the USC players will have never played in anything close to what they will experience in Virginia in August, and the football operations people at USC had better be prepared for how the heat will impact the Trojan football players. Virginia has the talent to make this a very close game, but in the end we see USC's running game being the difference in getting them the win, which gets the Trojans off to a 1-0 start. After a win at Virginia, USC gets a week off to prepare for what promises to be a great intersectional game against the Ohio State Buckeyes. Ohio State has to be smarting after getting pushed around by LSU in the national title game in January, and if the Buckeyes don't arrive at the Coliseum determined to prove that they belong among the elite of college football, then Jim Tressel will not be doing his job. Ohio State will be well prepared for this game, but the Buckeyes will have a very difficult time dealing with the speed and depth on the USC side of the field, and the Trojans should be able to get the win. After two games, USC is 2-0. After two big games to open the season, USC must immediately refocus in week 3 for the beginning of Pac-10 conference play and a very tough trip to Corvallis, Oregon to play Oregon State. If a real college football fan has not been to a football game at Oregon State's Reser Stadium in Corvallis, then you need to put it on your list, because it is one of the wildest scenes in the game. In 2006 USC arrived in Corvallis 6-0 and riding high, and Oregon State and its fans rose up and beat back the Trojans and got a 33-31 win and dealt a major blow to USC's national title hopes. In 2008, USC will be visiting Corvallis in September which is probably before the rains begin in Oregon, and that should help the southern California boys out, but a Thursday night kick-off and national TV audience will probably have the Oregon State fans in a frenzy. In a very close game, we see Mike Riley and his OSU Beavers getting the win over USC, which sends the Trojans record to 2-1. After a tough loss to Oregon State, USC must come back and get ready to play the Oregon Ducks at the Coliseum, and if USC wants to get back in the hunt for the national title, they will have to be up for this and the following game against Arizona State. We see another closer than expected game against Oregon, with USC's depth and home-field advantage being the difference to get the Trojans the win. After four games, USC is 3-1. Dennis Erickson and Arizona State visit the Coliseum in Week 5, and this is the 2nd game between Erickson and Carroll in the Pac-10, and it should be another very good game. USC has too much talent to lose to the Sun Devils at home, and a win in this game runs the USC record to 4-1. Week 6 is a trip to Pullman, Washington to play Washington State and although this has been a tough spot for many Pac-10 teams in recent years, the Trojans should win this contest easily if they just play their game. After six games, USC is 5-1. Week 7 is a trip to desert in Tucson to play Mike Stoops Arizona team, and this game will probably be a lot closer than what it looks like on paper. Arizona is a tough place to play for opposing teams, and although this game will be close into the 2nd half, the Trojans will pull away in 4th quarter to get a convincing win. After seven games, the Trojans are 6-1. Week 8 is an interesting game as Ty Willingham brings his Washington Huskies team to the Coliseum, and in their last trip to Los Angeles in '06 they almost pulled off the win. USC has way too much talent to lose to UW, but the Huskies will be improved in 2008 and they will make this game competitive into the 2nd half. USC will get the win over Washington, and thus 7-1 after eight games. Week 9 should be a great Pac-10 game as Jeff Tedford brings the Cal Bears to the Coliseum for a match-up of two top teams in the conference. Cal should make this game close, but in the end USC will just have too much for the Bears, especially since they will know that another loss will cost the Trojans a shot at the conference and national title. USC beats Cal, which takes their record to 8-1.

Week 10 is the payback game for Carroll and the Trojans, as USC lost to Stanford in '07 in one of the greatest upsets in the history of college football. Jim Harbaugh is working very hard at Stanford, but he does not have the players to stay with USC when the Trojans are motivated, and they will be motivated in this game. USC gets the win over the Cardinal, and they move their record to 9-1. Week 11 is becoming one of the most interesting games on the schedule, when Charlie Weis brings the Irish to the Coliseum to play the Trojans. The backstory here is the history between Bill Parcells and Pete Carroll, and that Weis is a Parcells guy, is very interesting to us, and it will be important that Weis and Notre Dame start to make this a more competitive football game. Notre Dame cannot afford another blowout at the Coliseum, but we do expect this game to be won convincingly by the Trojans. USC beats Notre Dame, and runs their record to 10-1. Week 12 is the first of what we hope will be many match-ups between Neuheisel/Chow and Pete Carroll and the Trojans. Neuheisel is very determined to return his alma mater to the top of the Pac-10 and he is going to have to go through the USC Trojans to get to the top of the conference. Although this game will be played in the Rose Bowl, it is not really a home game for the Bruins, and with Neuheisel almost certainly popping off during game week on something about the Trojans, the USC football team and their fans will certainly be up for this game. Pete Carroll will no doubt want to make a statement in this game that USC is not going anywhere, and we see the Trojans jumping out to a big lead in the 1st half, and adding to it as the game goes on. USC beats UCLA, and they finish the '08 regular season at 11-1.