PHIL FULMER

Age:  58

School:  University of Tennessee

Alma Mater:  Tennessee, 1971

Conference:  SEC

Salary:  $2,400,000

Official Bio:  UTSports.com

Years Coaching:  16

Career Record:  147 - 45   .766

Years at School:  16

Record at Tennessee:  147 - 45   .766

2007 Record:  10 - 4  .714

2007 Cost per Win:  $205,000

Attorney/Agent:  Unknown    

Contract: 

December 2008 Buyout:  $3,250,000

Coaches Hot Seat Analysis

On the face of it, with a career record of 147-45 (.766) record at Tennessee, it doesn't make a whole lot of sense that Phil Fulmer is on the Hot Seat.  Reality and perception are two different things though and without a doubt Phil Fulmer enters the 2008 season with his job on the line.  Fulmer underestimates the amount of frustration among Tennessee fans at his own peril, and 2008 be a pivotal year for Fulmer to prove that he can get Tennessee back to the top of the SEC.

A cold crisp day dawns in Nashville, Tennessee on November 22, 2008 and Phil Fulmer is coaching for his job against the Vanderbilt Commodores.  That is what we foresee for Fulmer and Tennessee in '08, with one of the toughest schedules in the country facing the Vols.  If as we predict, Tennessee arrives in Nashville to play Vanderbilt with a 5-5 record, Phil Fulmer will know that a loss to either Vandy in Nashville or against Kentucky in the final game at home will end his coaching career.  If the Vols are 5-5 on November 21, the Tennessee fans will be screaming from the rafters and the pressure to remove Fulmer from the head coaching job will be immense.  That decision will not be in AD Mike Hamilton's hands, but rather it will be made by the people that pay the bills at Tennessee, the fans.  With road games at UCLA, Auburn, Georgia, South Carolina, and Vandy, there is very little margin of error for Fulmer in a very tough home slate of games that includes:  Florida, Mississippi State, Alabama, and Kentucky.  If Fulmer loses more than one of those home games, and we are predicting that the Gators will beat Tennessee in Knoxville, it is going to be next to impossible to put up a winning record at UT in 2008.  One key record to keep in mind is that Fulmer is 14-12 in his last 26 SEC games.  That kind of record against SEC foes is just not going to get it done at Tennessee.

Coaches Hot Seat Bottom Line

We are predicting a 8-4 record for Fulmer and Tennessee in 2008.  Last season Fulmer was one lost fumble against South Carolina to losing his job, and in 2008 we see the pressure building for a change at Tennessee as Fulmer and the Vols struggle to get to even a .500 record.  Can a coach possibly win 76% of the games and lose his job?  Yes he can, and Phil Fulmer knows that can happen, because he has been at Tennessee in some capacity for over 40 years and he knows what the Tennessee fans expect out of their football program.  Fulmer has two big things working against him, with the first being the perception, rather the reality from our view, that his football program is out of control.  Fulmer's second problem is how long he has been at Tennessee, where he is now heading into his 17th season as a head coach, which is about 7 years past the 10 year limit that the Raiders' Al Davis said is the amount of time a head football coach should stay at once place.  We get a lot of e-mail from fans here at Coaches Hot Seat, but in the past year only one coach, Houston Nutt at Arkansas, garnered more e-mail to be sent to us about the status of their head coach.  The coach behind Nutt that generated the most e-mail was Phil Fulmer, and 99% of it was against him and calling for a change in the head coach at Tennessee.  From where we sit, if Phil Fulmer does indeed end the 2008 season with a 6-6 record, he will be fired. 

Change to prediction - August 13, 2008 - We have changed our prediction on the 2008 season for Phil Fulmer and Tennessee to an 8-4 regular season record.  UCLA's difficulties at the QB position, and the progress being made with Tennessee's new offense and offensive coordinator are both positives things for the Vols in 2008.

2008 Coaches Hot Seat Prediction:        8-4

Will Fulmer be back for the 2009 season?        YES