Troy Calhoun

Date	Opponent	Location	2008 CHS Prediction
8/30/08	Southern Utah	Colorado Springs, CO	W
9/06/08	at Wyoming	Laramie, WY	W
9/13/08	at Houston	Houston, TX	W
9/20/08	Utah	Colorado Springs, CO	W
10/04/08	Navy	Colorado Springs, CO	W
10/11/08	at San Diego State	San Diego, CA	W
10/18/08	at UNLV	Las Vegas, NV	W
10/23/08	New Mexico	Colorado Springs, CO	W
11/01/08	at Army	West Point, NY	W
11/08/08	Colorado State	Colorado Springs, CO	W
11/15/08	BYU	Colorado Springs, CO	L
11/22/08	at TCU	Ft. Worth, TX	L

	Coaches Hot Seat Prediction		10-2

Coaches Hot Seat Analysis

After the legendary coaching career of Fisher DeBerry at Air Force we were interested to see the Falcons select a relatively unknown (to us at least) coach in Troy Calhoun to take over the Air Force football program. After looking into Calhoun's background in the summer of '07, his hiring made perfect sense though: Played at Air Force, worked as a graduate assistant to DeBerry for two seasons, coached in several different jobs in college and in the NFL, all added up to a guy that was uniquely qualified to take over the Falcon football program. As the season got underway last year we were interested to see Air Force in action, and we were surprised by their early season wins at Utah and over TCU. Something else surprised us as well about Calhoun's 1st Air Force team, and that was they were playing with a little more zip, more hustle, more force, and more as a team than under DeBerry's last years at the Academy. As the season went on and even as Air Force dropped a few games, the Air Force team still seemed to be getting a little better each week, which to us is the sure sign of a well coached football team. After a November beatdown of Notre Dame in South Bend it looked to us that Air Force was playing like a top 20 team, which was a dramatic turnaround from the last three years of the DeBerry era (13-21 .382). Yes, we were very surprised by the job that Calhoun was doing at Air Force last season, but then came the Armed Forces Bowl against Cal, where the Falcons had the Bears on the ropes throughout the game. Even though Cal came back to beat Air Force, Calhoun and the Falcons made a big statement in 2007 and they served notice on the Mountain West conference, to the other service academies, and to college football that Air Force football was back.

What did Troy Calhoun and his staff do to have such a dramatic impact in under one year on the Air Force football program? The Air Force Academy, much like the other service academies, is not the easiest place to find out things about their athletic programs, but after a late-spring golf trip to The Broadmoor in Colorado Springs a few things have been gleamed on what Calhoun has been up to. The first item is that things had gotten a little stale during DeBerry's last years at Air Force, and the Falcons were ripe for someone that would come in and ask more of the Falcon football players. The second item was to quit making excuses, as DeBerry seemed to be doing in his last few years about the "quality" of football players that he could get to the Academy. The third item was a focus on competitiveness for the entire team, the need for every player to compete for his job, and the demand that Air Force not back down from any opponent on its schedule. All of those things have added up to a dramatically different culture within the football program at Air Force since Calhoun's arrival, and a very positive outlook for the Falcon football program going forward. Lastly, there was something else that a couple of Coaches Hot Seat members saw in the Air Force players in the Armed Forces Bowl against Cal that really surprised all of us when we took another look at that game on tape. Several years ago former Auburn coach Pat Dye was asked what worried him most about an opposing team. Was it talent, speed, a great quarterback, fast receivers, big linemen, etc.? Pat Dye's answer (paraphrased): "What worried me most is when the other team was getting up in our throats on every play and laying a lick on our players. That is the kind of team that worried me." Well, at the Armed Forces Bowl we saw an Air Force team that for the first time in awhile that wasn't bashful about laying a lick on the players on the other team. That is the main reason why Air Force football is going to be a force to be reckoned with under Troy Calhoun.

Coaches Hot Seat Bottom Line

We predict that Troy Calhoun and Air Force will have a 10-2 record in 2008. After a very surprising 8-4 regular season record in Troy Calhoun's first year at Air Force, the expectations have increased for the Falcons in 2008. The season starts easy enough with I-AA Southern Utah visiting Colorado Springs and that means Air Force is 1-0 after one game. Week 2 is a big game for Air Force to get some momentum for the season going with a trip to Laramie to play Wyoming. Joe Glenn has struggled in recent years at Wyoming, and the Cowboys will be up to get a big win over Air Force at the start of this season. This should be a very good Mountain West game that will be pretty close into the 4th quarter, but we see Air Force getting the win in the end. After two games, Air Force is 2-0. Week 3 is a very interesting game on many different levels, with Air Force traveling to play at the University of Houston. Kevin Sumlin is in his first year as a head coach at Houston, and Troy Calhoun's last job was with the Houston Texans before taking the Air Force job. Air Force should be too much for Houston in this game, especially in Sumlin's first year, and a win takes the Falcons' record to 3-0. Week 4 is the second big Mountain West game for Air Force as Utah travels to Colorado Springs for an important match-up for both teams. Utah will be shooting for the Mountain West title in '08 and a win on the road against Air Force will be very important to keep their title hopes on track. This should be a great football game, and a high scoring one as well, but we see Air Force getting the win with the home-field advantage. After four games, Air Force is 4-0. Week 5 is the first of two big games for the Commander in Chief's Trophy, and this will be the first game between Air Force and Navy in the post-Paul Johnson era at Navy. That the game is in Colorado Springs and the coaching change at Navy will play a big role in who wins this game, and we see Air Force getting another win to run their record to 5-0. Week 6 is a trip to San Diego State in what could be a trap game for Air Force after a big win over Navy. If Air Force is focused for this game they should be able to handle the Aztecs, and a win over San Diego State would run the Falcons record to 6-0. Week 7 is another possible trap game for Air Force as they travel to Las Vegas to play UNLV. The Running Rebels have been mainly down during Mike Sanford's tenure in Vegas (6-29 .171), and we doubt if UNLV will be able to hang with Air Force in this game. With a win over the Rebels, Air Force moves its record to 7-0. Game 8 is another Mountain West game as New Mexico travels to Colorado Springs to play the Falcons. New Mexico and Rocky Long had a bit of a comeback in 2007, posting a 9-4 record, and if they keep up that type of play in '08, they will have a chance to win some games on the road. This should be a close game throughout, and the Falcons home-field advantage will be the difference again. With a win over New Mexico, Air Force takes their record to 8-0. There is nothing quite like a trip to West Point, and if you throw in a football game, it really gets interesting. Army plays very well at home and Air Force will be way out of their element in this game, but with the Commander in Chief's Trophy on the line, we see the Falcons getting the win. After 9 games, Air Force is 9-0. In week 10 Colorado State travels about two hours south on I-25 to play Air Force, and this should be an interesting game to watch with first year CSU coach Steve Fairchild. Air Force is at home, they will be on a roll, and they will want to beat an in-state rival, which all adds up to a Falcons win and a 10-0 record. If Air Force is 10-0 after ten games then they will probably be in the top 10 in the country and hoping for a big postseason bowl. The problem is, Air Force has two very difficult games to end the year. The first game up for Air Force is against Brigham Young at home in what we see as one of the best Mountain West conference games of the year. This should be a high-scoring affair with both teams moving the ball pretty well throughout, and in another close game, we see BYU getting the win in the 4th quarter. After eleven games, Air Force is 10-1. To end the season, Air Force will travel to Ft. Worth to play TCU, a team they beat in 2007. The last time the Falcons were in Ft. Worth they almost beat Cal, and they will be comfortable playing in TCU's stadium, but this time around we see the Horned Frogs getting the win. After the loss against TCU, Air Force finishes their regular season at 10-2.

10-2 would be a great record for Air Force in 2008, but there will be some disappointment after starting 10-0 and then losing the last two games. Certainly a 9-3 record in '07 and a

10-2 record in '08 would be a massive improvement over the last three years of the Fisher DeBerry era at Air Force, and would only make the outlook for Air Force football going forward very bright. If Troy Calhoun stays at Air Force for 10 years, we would bet right now that he will win at least 7 or 8 Commander in Chief's Trophies, and that would be a mighty accomplishment for Calhoun the Falcon football program

2008 Coaches Hot Seat Prediction: 10-2

Will Troy Calhoun be back for the 2009 season? YES